New political equation may emerge in Bihar

After resignation of chief minister Nitish Kumar on Saturday, a new political equation may emerge in Bihar which in the words of JD(U) chief Sarad Yadav may spring surprise on the national level.

As per the indication, the two old friends-turned-foes Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad who have been drubbed in the just concluded general elections and who had parted ways in early nineties, may join hands for the formation of a 'secular' government.

At 4pm on Sunday (today) the JD(U) legislators are meeting at CM residence to elect a new leader. But as sources said they will express their solidarity with Nitish and request him to withdraw his resignation. Though there seems little scope of Nitish succumbing to their pressure. Meanwhile, he has applied to the housing department to allot him a different house as he readies to vacate official CM residence — 1' Ane Marg. The department has allotted him a new house.

The RJD leaders are tight-lipped over the developments and the Lalu's party has also called a meeting of its legislature party on Monday. Some JD(U) leaders in Delhi reportedly met Congress leaders to discuss the issue and Congress is believed to have assured to support JD(U) government.

Political circles believe that RJD may extend support to JD(U) government whether it is headed by Nitish or someone else. The party may also join the new government. The names doing round as replacement of Nitish include Bijendra Yadav, Vijay Kumar Chaudhary and Narendra Singh, all ministers.

There is also speculation that Nitish may take over national president of JD(U) in view of the age and health of present chief Sharad Yadav.

Source: TOI

Will MY factor work for Lalu Prasad in Bihar?

After an emphatic win by the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the 2010 assembly election and more recently his conviction in fodder scam,Lalu Prasad was completely written off in Bihar politics. He got a new lease of life after NDA’s disintegration in the state and his alliance with the Congress, but the scope for his re-emergence was still considered limited.
During the initial two phases of polls in Bihar, the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) under Lalu Prasad in the state was expected to put up a good fight, but the advantage was given to Narendra Modi-led NDA. However, in the last two weeks, a section of the media has gone overboard to predict a sweep for UPA in Bihar due to the consolidation of Muslim-Yadav (MY) votes and also a higher voter turnout.
As far as the voter turnout is concerned, it is not just limited to Bihar. Rather, this election is experiencing a huge and unprecedented bump of about 10% votes across the nation. Moreover, a deeper analysis suggests it is not just minorities, but also the majority population that has given an equal, if not extra, push to high polling. This publication carried an exclusive piece on this subject in its 1 May edition.

Let us analyse the potential of the MY factor in influencing the outcome of the ongoing Lok Sabha polls in Bihar. Sixteen percent Muslims and 14% Yadavs together account for about 30% of Bihar’s electorate. If we look at the spread of MY across its 40 parliamentary constituencies, there are five PCs with more than 40% and eight PCs with 30-40% combined MY electorate. Thus, UPA has the potential to present a formidable challenge in these 13 PCs, but still can’t win all 13 because Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) has failed to win several of these seats in the recent past despite polarizing MY. It is true MY consolidation will make UPA appear formidable, but just MY is not enough to win many seats unless there is support from other sections of voters.

Bihar’s electoral history since 1990 suggests Lalu Prasad could win 1990, 1995 and 2000 Assembly elections because, besides MY support, he had a huge fan following among 23% most backwards classes (MBCs) and 10% non-Paswan SCs (Mahadalits) due to his social justice plank. But NDA with the combined strength of Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) Sawarn, Nitish Kumar’s other backward class (OBC) and Ram Vilas Paswan’s votes presented a tough challenge to Lalu Prasad and won the most seats in undivided Bihar in 1998 Lok Sabha elections. But once Paswan and the Congress joined hands with the RJD in 2004, the balance of electoral power shifted to Lalu Prasad and the UPA swept Bihar in 2004. Once again when Paswan left the UPA, just MY could not save Lalu Prasad’s fortunes in both the assembly elections of 2005. Therefore, just 30% MY can’t give RJD the winning edge unless it manages at least 5-10% support from other social segments.

The results of the 2005 and 2010 Assembly and 2009 Lok Sabha elections suggest that the poor sections of Bihar electorate mainly comprising of MBCs and Mahadalits have completely deserted the RJD. There is no empirical evidence to suggest that these social segments have any reason to go back to Lalu Prasad at least in this election. This is the same electorate which inspired Nitish Kumar to part ways with the BJP; therefore, only Nitish Kumar, and not Lalu Prasad, has the potential to challenge BJP’s growth among OBC and Dalits in Bihar.

It will be worthwhile to discuss a few important social engineering initiatives of the BJP which are likely to dilute the MY impact. BJP is no longer considered as a party of upper castes in Bihar due to Modi’s projection as an OBC leader, which got a further boost due to the recent “neech jaati” controversy. An unprecedented number of tickets given to OBCs is also expected to give further impetus to BJP’s effort in wooing OBCs. Inclusion of Upendra Kushwaha and Ram Vilas Paswan into NDA has not only added an additional 5% Kushwaha and 5% Paswan votes in its kitty, but has also helped BJP shed its upper caste image. Today, NDA in Bihar is poised to secure about 40% votes with near 100% consolidation of 15% Sawarn, 7% Baniya, 5% Kushwaha, 5% Paswan and more than 50% support of non-Yadav OBC, MBC and Mahadalits.

Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) is likely to get completely marginalized due to the erosion of its core constituency (MBC, Mahadalit and Kurmies) and consolidation of Muslims with RJD. On the other hand, despite MY consolidation, UPA does not look like getting more than 32-33% votes. Those who are presuming polarization of Yadavs with the UPA should also be mindful of the fact that a section of young aspiring Yadavs who want development and employment may get attracted to BJP. Such a trend is more likely in communally sensitive areas where counter-polarization of majority voters has been reported.
Therefore, it would not be inappropriate to conclude that MY consolidation is expected to resurrect Lalu Prasad in Bihar politics as the main challenger of a resurgent BJP, but UPA may still not be able to contain Narendra Modi’s march in Bihar beyond a point.

Source: LM

Bihar stalwarts face a battle for survival

Though the big three of Bihar politics-Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) chief Lalu Prasad and BJP heavyweight Sushil Kumar Modi-are unlikely to contest the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, scheduled in a few months from now; their future appear critically dependent upon the outcome of the general election.

While Lalu Prasad cannot contest the Lok Sabha after his conviction in a fodder scam case that barred him from electoral politics; Nitish Kumar and his friend turned bete-noire Sushil Kumar Modi may prefer to stay back in Patna for obvious reasons. Nitish Kumar will continue as Bihar Chief Minister whereas Sushil Modi will seek to become one after the Bihar Assembly elections scheduled next year.

Ram Vilas Paswan, the only political biggie from Bihar who is almost sure to contest 2014 Lok Sabha election from Hajipur, the seat that he once won with a record margin but lost in 2009-needs to put up a better show to stay relevant in Bihar political landscape. This will also be perhaps his last chance to stage a comeback to political centre-stage or get reduced to political insignificance.

Having spearheaded JD-U to win 20 of the 35 Lok Sabha seats that his party contested in 2009, Nitish Kumar faces an enormous challenge of repeat his performance in 2009 Lok Sabha and 2010 Assembly election Nitish Kumar currently has the highest number of 20 Lok Sabha MPs in Bihar. No wonder, he is faced with the biggest challenge to retain these seats, if not to improve his tally.

In a calculated risk, Nitish Kumar had dumped BJP in June this year after his saffron ally of 17 years projected Narendra Modi as its prime ministerial candidate.

Nitish Kumar broke up the alliance shortly after losing Maharajganj by-election by a huge margin to RJD, prompting new political alignments in Bihar. Though Nitish Kumar will continue as Bihar Chief Minister irrespective of Lok Sabha polls results; JD-U's performance in these elections will largely determine his political future in the long run.

Truth to tell, the Nitish Kumar's government has faced multiple challenges in the aftermath of their divorce with BJP; and ironically failed to inspire confidence.

The death of 23 kids who lost their lives after consuming poisonous midday meal in Saran followed by Indian Mujahideen-triggered serial blasts at Bodhgaya on July 7 and subsequently at the BJP rally in Patna on October 27 are some of the incidents that raised serious questions on the ability of Nitish Kumar's minority government to govern. Not only this, the Naxalites have stepped up their attacks while criminals are once again began calling the shots in Bihar, prompting spurt in murder, loot, kidnapping and robbery.

If Nitish Kumar has a mountain to climb; so does BJP heavyweight Sushil Modi. The split has put him face to face with Nitish Kumar. Having shaken off the image of an amenable Deputy Chief Minister that he was, Modi has emerged as a sharp and belligerent opposition leader. Now, the 2014 elections results would determine if become a bigger leader than the other three better known politicians from Bihar.

The 2014 Lok Sabha election will also decide if Lalu Prasad has stayed relevant in Bihar despite his conviction in a fodder scam case. While flaunting his anti-Narendra Modi credentials; Nitish Kumar has been trying hard to woo the 16 per cent Muslim electorates, Lalu's relevance will depend on how much he succeeds in retaining his hold over minority votes. Having lost his Lok Sabha member ship following his conviction, Lalu is fighting with his back to the wall. The 2014 election results will eventually decide if the most famous poster boy of secularism in Bihar goes up or down.

Lalu’s ‘coalition of the discredited’ could challenge BJP, Nitish in Bihar

Lalu Prasad Yadav had only just stepped out of the gates of Ranchi’s Birsa Munda jail when he took aim at Narendra Modi and the BJP. The RJD supremo, granted bail by the Supreme Court pending his appeal against a lower court order convicting him in the Fodder Scam case, promised to “unite all secular parties…to strengthen secular forces…(so that) Narendra Modi, RSS and BJP would not be able to fulfil their dreams.”

His target though was not Narendra Modi. It was Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. The JD(U) chief, Lalu’s one time colleague turned arch rival, has been claiming the secular mantle in Bihar since he broke his 17 year long alliance with the BJP over the Prime Ministerial candidature of Narendra Modi.

Lalu Prasad Yadav. PTI In Bihar’s fractured polity, secularism is a catch phrase to win the votes of the minority Muslim population, which at around 17 percent of the state’s population is a significant vote bank. Without the Muslim vote to add to his Yadav base, Lalu is a marginal player in Bihar. Having broken away from the BJP (and its upper caste and urban pockets vote), Nitish too might end up a marginal player should he fail to garner a big majority of the Muslim vote. Only one of Lalu or Nitish will end up a serious contender to a Modi-led BJP in the next Lok Sabha election. The sight of Lalu, the original anti-BJP crusader who had arrested LK Advani in 1990, walking out of jail (with the sympathy factor tailing him) would have displeased no one more than Nitish Kumar.

Lalu's release is obviously good news for his RJD which was routed in 2009 and would have found the going difficult in 2014 without its charismatic leader. It is also good news for the Congress, which now has two potential allies in a crucial state — RJD and JD(U). In the circumstances, it can hope to strike a good bargain. The Congress’s core vote, around 10 percent of the total (which could rise in the event of a religiously polarised campaign) could be an important addition for both Lalu and Nitish. Of course, there are perils of allying with Congress. The UPA is a widely discredited Government held responsible for rampant inflation and corruption. Nitish Kumar, who prides himself on a good governance record in Bihar, would lose considerable sheen should he form an opportunistic alliance with the Congress. Lalu, on the other hand, would have no such compulsions. Like UPA 2, Lalu is only remembered for bad governance and corruption during his party’s fifteen-year-reign in Bihar between 1990 and 2005. Still, a RJD-Congress-LJP (Paswan’s outfit) ‘coalition of the discredited’ could form a potent force by getting its caste and religious arithmetic right.

It would give the BJP a run for its money and would almost certainly hand Nitish an adverse outcome. The threat of losing the entire Muslim vote to a RJD-Congress alliance may yet force Nitish to woo the Congress. That would be good news for BJP as the Muslim vote may get split between Lalu and a JD(U)-Congress alliance. It would also destroy Nitish’s reputation as an able and honest administrator. Whatever the outcome, Bihar is heading into its most interesting and uncertain election in decades. After two reasonably successful term sin Government, Nitish Kumar ought to have been in pole position. But the Modi factor and the Lalu wildcard have left him in an uneasy spot. The Congress, which by itself would not be a player in Bihar, may find itself in the rather attractive position of being wooed by two regional satraps. Add to this combustible mix the fact that Narendra Modi’s Prime Ministerial hopes may well depend on the Bihar outcome. The stakes are high. Expect some serious manipulative politics ahead.

Source: FP