For Mukesh Yadav, a resident of Bihar's Supaul district and a Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) sympathiser, Lalu Prasad's conviction in the fodder scam does not mean he will lose popularity among his core voters. On the contrary, he believes, Lalu will ride a sympathy wave, as paying the price for championing the cause of backward classes. Sanjay Mishra of adjoining Araria district, on the other hand, thinks it is all advantage Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) after Lalu's conviction and the parting of ways between the Janata Dal United or JD(U), and the BJP.
Both Yadav and Mishra are, perhaps, echoing the views of the caste they belong to. While Yadavs have always been ardent supporters of the RJD, upper castes have tended to throw their weight around the BJP since the 1990s. Both groups see a better future for the party they support because of, what they perceive, the relative decline of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's JD(U). Is this the way politics is going to be played out in Bihar? Has Nitish Kumar lost the plot following his break-up with the BJP?
Bihar has been known for caste alliances impacting electoral outcomes. But the 2009 Lok Sabha elections and the 2010 assembly elections broke this pattern for the first time. The JD(U)-BJP alliance under Nitish Kumar could successfully manage to sell development dreams and secure votes not only from his core constituencies but from many others who saw in him a hope for the beleaguered state.
An analysis of the 2009 Lok Sabha elections by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) suggests JD(U) and BJP together, not only got 65 per cent of upper caste votes, but also managed to win 58 per cent of OBC votes, 29 per cent of Dalit votes and a fair share of Muslim votes as well.
Is there any chance of the 2010 pattern getting reversed now and why? A look at the Nitish Kumar government's performance in the last eight years might give us some clues. While gross state domestic product (GSDP) growth numbers continue to impress, it is the quality of growth that is clearly worrisome. The 10 per cent plus growth number has been achieved mainly because of good showing by just two sectors - construction and trade, hotels and restaurants. The construction sector, which used to contribute seven per cent of the GSDP in 2004-05, now makes up for 12.1 per cent of the state's economy. During the same period, while the share of trade, hotels and restaurants has gone up from 23 per cent to 35 per cent, the share of manufacturing has come down from 4.9 per cent to 4.3 per cent. And despite what has been hailed as an example of good governance, the state has actually managed to attract very little private capital. According to Bihar's economic survey of 2012-13, four industrial units with a total investment of a paltry Rs 290 crore have come up recently. This includes Britannia Industries investment of Rs 50 crore and Ruchi Soya's Rs 100 crore.
Despite stellar growth numbers, Bihar's level of urbanisation is a dismal 11 per cent against the national average of 31 per cent. Tax to GSDP ratio in Bihar stands at five against Uttar Pradesh's 10, Madhya Pradesh's 11 and Odisha's eight.
What is worrisome is the certain degree of, what can be called, 'fatigue in governance' in the Nitish Kumar government's second term. Percentage coverage of the mid-day meal scheme has been coming down since 2010 and the percentage of households provided with jobs under the rural employment guarantee scheme has seen a drastic fall since 2010-11. Worse, crime rates have gone up and communal riots are making a comeback.
Does this signal a trend reversal in the quality of governance? The opinion is clearly divided. "There is no question of trend reversal. Bihar needs more resources and also the resources utilisation capacity," says D M Diwakar, director of A N Sinha Institute of social research. Patna-based sociologist Hetukar Jha agrees too, for an entirely different reason though. "My take on Bihar's performance in recent years has been, raja badla hai, rajya nahin (rulers have changed, not the rule). There was no industry then, there is none now. There was no job then, there is none now. There was mistrust among communities. It persists even today. Hence, there is no question of trend reversal," says Jha rather cynically. "The challenge before the Bihar government is to manage expectation," says Alakh N Sharma, director of Institute for Human Development.
"There has been some deterioration in the law and order situation and there have been some instances of communal clashes. But to conclude that it signals a trend reversal is a hasty conclusion. It is a result of the fluid political situation arising out of two recent developments: Lalu Prasad's conviction and the break up of the 17-year-old JD(U)-BJP alliance," says a scholar associated with Patna University, who did not wish to be named.
Reversal of positive trend it may not be. But as past political alliances have become meaningless, old fault lines have begun to appear again.
"When I visited Bihar recently, I did not feel as secure as I used to be till last year. Development no longer dominates the public discourse and identity-based politics has made a comeback with vengeance," says Ranjit Kumar, a native of Bihar who teaches Sanskrit at Delhi's Hansraj College.
Amiya Mohan, also a native of Bihar who teaches journalism at BAG Films-promoted ISOMES, echoes the view. "What is hurting Bihar now is Nitish Kumar's growing proximity with tainted politicians. During his first term, he was very strict on criminals. Perhaps because of insecurity, following the separation from the BJP, he wants to add muscle to his party," observes Mohan.
What will be the impact of the changing discourse on the outcome of the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections at a time when each party is expected to rediscover its core support base? Of all social groups, only Yadavs, upper castes (12 per cent of the state's population), Koeries-Kurmis (roughly seven per cent) and a section of Dalits are expected to vote for the party they have been voting for in recent years. Yadavs (nearly 12 per cent) are expected to back the RJD. Their enthusiasm will depend on how quickly the party regroups after Lalu's conviction. The BJP might get the bulk of upper caste votes, while Nitish Kumar can be assured of support from Koeries and Kurmis. It emerges that both the BJP and the RJD start with an almost identical fixed base and their fortune will depend on the incremental gains they make.
The real fight will be to secure votes of OBCs (30 per cent of state population), Muslims (16 per cent) and Dalits. Nitish Kumar can count himself to be frontrunner geting votes from all three sections because of his government's programmes for Atipicharas (most backward classes), Mahadalits and backward Muslims. However, the BJP will also be eyeing a sizeable section of OBC votes and the RJD considers itself to be a strong contender for minority votes.
The choice of candidates and an imaginative alliance will hold the key. "There is a strong probability, but not definite, of Muslims going with the JD(U)," observes R K Verma of B R Ambedkar Bihar University, adding that the party's appeal among minorities would go up if it managed a tie-up with the Congress.
Is it why the Congress is being wooed by both the JD(U) and the RJD?
Both Yadav and Mishra are, perhaps, echoing the views of the caste they belong to. While Yadavs have always been ardent supporters of the RJD, upper castes have tended to throw their weight around the BJP since the 1990s. Both groups see a better future for the party they support because of, what they perceive, the relative decline of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's JD(U). Is this the way politics is going to be played out in Bihar? Has Nitish Kumar lost the plot following his break-up with the BJP?
Bihar has been known for caste alliances impacting electoral outcomes. But the 2009 Lok Sabha elections and the 2010 assembly elections broke this pattern for the first time. The JD(U)-BJP alliance under Nitish Kumar could successfully manage to sell development dreams and secure votes not only from his core constituencies but from many others who saw in him a hope for the beleaguered state.
An analysis of the 2009 Lok Sabha elections by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) suggests JD(U) and BJP together, not only got 65 per cent of upper caste votes, but also managed to win 58 per cent of OBC votes, 29 per cent of Dalit votes and a fair share of Muslim votes as well.
Is there any chance of the 2010 pattern getting reversed now and why? A look at the Nitish Kumar government's performance in the last eight years might give us some clues. While gross state domestic product (GSDP) growth numbers continue to impress, it is the quality of growth that is clearly worrisome. The 10 per cent plus growth number has been achieved mainly because of good showing by just two sectors - construction and trade, hotels and restaurants. The construction sector, which used to contribute seven per cent of the GSDP in 2004-05, now makes up for 12.1 per cent of the state's economy. During the same period, while the share of trade, hotels and restaurants has gone up from 23 per cent to 35 per cent, the share of manufacturing has come down from 4.9 per cent to 4.3 per cent. And despite what has been hailed as an example of good governance, the state has actually managed to attract very little private capital. According to Bihar's economic survey of 2012-13, four industrial units with a total investment of a paltry Rs 290 crore have come up recently. This includes Britannia Industries investment of Rs 50 crore and Ruchi Soya's Rs 100 crore.
Despite stellar growth numbers, Bihar's level of urbanisation is a dismal 11 per cent against the national average of 31 per cent. Tax to GSDP ratio in Bihar stands at five against Uttar Pradesh's 10, Madhya Pradesh's 11 and Odisha's eight.
What is worrisome is the certain degree of, what can be called, 'fatigue in governance' in the Nitish Kumar government's second term. Percentage coverage of the mid-day meal scheme has been coming down since 2010 and the percentage of households provided with jobs under the rural employment guarantee scheme has seen a drastic fall since 2010-11. Worse, crime rates have gone up and communal riots are making a comeback.
Does this signal a trend reversal in the quality of governance? The opinion is clearly divided. "There is no question of trend reversal. Bihar needs more resources and also the resources utilisation capacity," says D M Diwakar, director of A N Sinha Institute of social research. Patna-based sociologist Hetukar Jha agrees too, for an entirely different reason though. "My take on Bihar's performance in recent years has been, raja badla hai, rajya nahin (rulers have changed, not the rule). There was no industry then, there is none now. There was no job then, there is none now. There was mistrust among communities. It persists even today. Hence, there is no question of trend reversal," says Jha rather cynically. "The challenge before the Bihar government is to manage expectation," says Alakh N Sharma, director of Institute for Human Development.
"There has been some deterioration in the law and order situation and there have been some instances of communal clashes. But to conclude that it signals a trend reversal is a hasty conclusion. It is a result of the fluid political situation arising out of two recent developments: Lalu Prasad's conviction and the break up of the 17-year-old JD(U)-BJP alliance," says a scholar associated with Patna University, who did not wish to be named.
Reversal of positive trend it may not be. But as past political alliances have become meaningless, old fault lines have begun to appear again.
"When I visited Bihar recently, I did not feel as secure as I used to be till last year. Development no longer dominates the public discourse and identity-based politics has made a comeback with vengeance," says Ranjit Kumar, a native of Bihar who teaches Sanskrit at Delhi's Hansraj College.
Amiya Mohan, also a native of Bihar who teaches journalism at BAG Films-promoted ISOMES, echoes the view. "What is hurting Bihar now is Nitish Kumar's growing proximity with tainted politicians. During his first term, he was very strict on criminals. Perhaps because of insecurity, following the separation from the BJP, he wants to add muscle to his party," observes Mohan.
What will be the impact of the changing discourse on the outcome of the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections at a time when each party is expected to rediscover its core support base? Of all social groups, only Yadavs, upper castes (12 per cent of the state's population), Koeries-Kurmis (roughly seven per cent) and a section of Dalits are expected to vote for the party they have been voting for in recent years. Yadavs (nearly 12 per cent) are expected to back the RJD. Their enthusiasm will depend on how quickly the party regroups after Lalu's conviction. The BJP might get the bulk of upper caste votes, while Nitish Kumar can be assured of support from Koeries and Kurmis. It emerges that both the BJP and the RJD start with an almost identical fixed base and their fortune will depend on the incremental gains they make.
The real fight will be to secure votes of OBCs (30 per cent of state population), Muslims (16 per cent) and Dalits. Nitish Kumar can count himself to be frontrunner geting votes from all three sections because of his government's programmes for Atipicharas (most backward classes), Mahadalits and backward Muslims. However, the BJP will also be eyeing a sizeable section of OBC votes and the RJD considers itself to be a strong contender for minority votes.
The choice of candidates and an imaginative alliance will hold the key. "There is a strong probability, but not definite, of Muslims going with the JD(U)," observes R K Verma of B R Ambedkar Bihar University, adding that the party's appeal among minorities would go up if it managed a tie-up with the Congress.
Is it why the Congress is being wooed by both the JD(U) and the RJD?
Source: BS
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